Tucson’s Housing Market Pulse – September 2024 Results
Ben & Kim Boldt – Top Realty Team in Tucson AZ
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The September 2024 Tucson Housing Market Pulse shows the Median sales price for INCREASED 1.7% from September 2023 and stands at $361,200. This breaks a four month decline in median price for a Tucson home.
As for the Average sales price, it INCREASED 0.6% over September 2023 to $417,675. Remember, that’s for all homes sold – Single-family, condos/townhomes and manufactured homes.
Only 845 sales were recorded in September 2024. That is the lowest level of unit sales in the last four years. Of that sales count, 51% were in the $200,000 to $399,999 price range.
Median days on market stood at 28 for September 2024. That’s UP 13 days from the prior year.
One more thing, the ratio of sales price to list price was 98.18% for September 2024.
Active listings at the end of September stood at 4,069.
The Tucson Housing Market Pulse September 2024 – All Homes – Single Family – Condos/Townhomes – Manufactured Homes
The Takeaway
Mortgage Rates
The Fed lowered interest rates 500 basis points in mid-September and hinted further rate reduction “may” be in the offering later this year. However, the September jobs report showed a higher-than-expected number of jobs were added to the economy. Some “crystal balls” suggest that may signal a pause on more cuts. But, of course, another cut may come about a few days before voting at the poles begins.
A quick “internet” review of mortgage rates in Arizona as of September 8, 2024, shows a 30-year fixed rate as low as 6.50%. A 15-year fixed rate at 5.50% and a 5/1 ARM at 5.99%.
Mortgage rates move up or down according to what’s happening in the broad economy: changes in inflation expectations, job creation and overall economic growth. Rates tend to rise when the economy is strengthening and fall when the economy is weakening. The consensus from “Bankrate” is that rates will continue to decline during 2024. That would be good for our market, but we will see what happens.
Of course, credit scores and incentives will affect these rates.
Demand
September 2024 sales of 845 were DOWN 20.3% from the prior year and DOWN 27.1% from the prior month. The sales price to list price ratio was at 98.18%. Under 100% but suggesting demand remains strong in the Tucson, AZ market.
It will be interesting to see if drop-in mortgage rates will spur sales over the next few months. Will rates drop further as the election nears?
> Inventory Of Homes for Sale
New listings came in at 1,760 in September. An increase of 11.1% from the prior year. That level is essentially no change from the prior month.
> Prices
Prices continue to increase year over year as shown by a slight increase of 0.6 % in the Average Sales Price for September 2023. The median sales price increased 1.7% from September 2023.
> The Bottom Line
Mortgage rates have eased into the mid 6.0% range and may decline further before the end of the year. It is doubtful current mortgage rates are low enough to motivate homeowners to sell unless they have to.
No change in the near-term outlook! Continued demand, prices up slightly and home inventory at historical low levers. Even 55+ communities are experiencing a slowdown in sales.
New home builders continue offering incentives to buyers. Advertisements show home price reductions and lower mortgage rates when using the builder’s financing arm. Sounds great but check the “fine print” for catches to the offer. Having a Realtor represent you for your new construction home purchase will help you do that.
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Conclusion
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