Tucson’s Housing Market Pulse – August 2024 Results
Ben & Kim Boldt – The Realty Team in Tucson AZ
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The August 2024 Tucson Housing Market Pulse shows the Median sales price for DECREASED 1.4% from August 2023 and stands at $355,000. This is the fourth month in a row that the the median sales price has declined.
As for the Average sales price, it INCREASED 0.5% over August 2023 to $415,500. Remember, that’s for all homes sold – Single-family, condos/townhomes and manufactured homes.
Median days on market stood at 25 for August 2024. That’s UP 12 days from the prior year.
One more thing, the ratio of sales price to list price was 98.02% for August 2024.
Active listings at the end of August stood at 3,772. Single-family at 3,127, Townhouses at 215, Condominiums at 182 and Manufactured homes at 212.
The Tucson Housing Market Pulse August 2024 – All Homes – Single Family – Condos/Townhomes – Manufactured Homes
The Takeaway
Mortgage Rates
The Fed hinted rates will be reduced one or two times before the end of 2024. A weak jobs report and slowing manufacturing sector supports this “hint”.
A quick “internet” review of mortgage rates in Arizona as of September 10, 2024, shows a 30-year fixed rate as low as 6.38%. A 15-year fixed rate at 5.72% and a 5/6 ARM at 5.25%.
Mortgage rates move up or down according to what’s happening in the broad economy: changes in inflation expectations, job creation and overall economic growth. Rates tend to rise when the economy is strengthening and fall when the economy is weakening. The consensus from “Bankrate” is that rates will continue to decline during 2024.
Of course, credit scores and incentives will affect these rates.
Demand
August 2024 sales of 1,076 were DOWN 13.2% from the prior year and down slightly from the prior month. The sales price to list price ratio was at 98.02%. Under 100% but suggesting demand remains strong in the Tucson, AZ market.
It will be interesting to see if lower mortgage rates will spur sales over the next few months. Will rates drop further as the election nears? WE will have to wait and see.
> Inventory Of Homes for Sale
New listings came in at 1,753 in August. An increase of 13.2% from the prior year. That is a month to month increase of 7.0%.
> Prices
Prices continue to increase year over year as shown by a slight increase of 0.5 % in the Average Sales Price for August. However, the median sales price decreased 1.4% from August 2023 and the fourth month in a row.
> The Bottom Line
Mortgage rates have eased into the mid 6.0% range and the consensus is rates will decline further before the end of 2025. With 60% of U.S. homeowners having a mortgage at or below 4.0% further reductions may be required to motivate homeowners to sell unless they have to.
No change in the near-term outlook! Continued demand, prices up slightly and home inventory at historical low levers. Even 55+ communities are experiencing a slowdown in sales.
New home builders appear to be increasing incentives to buyers. Advertisements show home price reductions and lower mortgage rates when using the builder’s financing arm. Sounds great but check the “fine print” for catches to the offer. Having a Realtor represent you for your new construction home purchase will help you do that.
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Conclusion
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